Griekenland 3 februari uit de brand?!

Er komen steeds hardnekkigere geruchten dat de grote Europese landen Griekenland gaan redden. Dat zou dan moeten gebeuren aan de hand van het Griekese stabilisatieplan dat volgens RBS op 3 februari wordt gepubliceerd:

RBS: "Unconfirmed media reports support our view that any help for Greece would come from the EC/Eurogroup, not the ECB

A couple of unconfirmed stories (Le Monde and The Economist) are generating some interest with regards to possible member country support for Greece. In particular, The Economist's "Charlemagne's notebook" (a blog by the author of their column on the European Union) states that "In Brussels policy circles, the question asked about a bailout of Greece used to be: are European Union governments willing to do this? Now, I can report, the question among top EU officials has changed to: how do we do this?". The Le Monde article suggests some rescue plan discussed between various governments, including France and Germany, which would have some form of strict conditionality requiring fiscal tightening.

Overall, this is what we thought the implicit message from ECB President Trichet was two weeks ago; that if there was help for Greece it would not come from the ECB but from the Eurogroup or the fiscal authorities in Europe.

While both the German Ministry of Finance and French government have unsurprisingly been quick to deny the Le Monde story - by doing so reinforcing the fact that the preferred resolution is for Greece to restore fiscal discipline and undertake the necessary measures to reduce its budget deficit - we continue to believe that if help is needed it will come from the European Commission/Eurogroup in particular and not from the ECB."

Dit zou dan voldoende moeten zijn om de zwakte op de aandelenbeurzen (de laatste tijd vaak aan het eind van de maand) te keren richting nieuw optimisme (zoals de laatste maanden vaak gebeurt.
Brett Steenbarger beredeneerde (via data mining?) dat je in deze cyclus naar het 17 weeks gemiddelde van de S&P500 moet kijken. D.w.z. de huidige niveaus voor de S&P500 moeten houden (en anders wordt de correctie erger dan gewoonlijk bij de fase BC van de vierjaarscyclus)