rente VS sinds 1790

via http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/11/the-long-behavioral-history-of-long-yields/
Ben Carlson:
Gambler’s Fallacy: “2010: Rates are going to rise. 2011: Rates are going to rise. 2012: Rates are going to rise. 2013: Rates are going to rise. 2014: Rates are going to rise. 2015: OK, this time rates have to rise.” Like the coin flipping guesser who thinks seeing six tails in a row makes it more likely that they’ll see a heads on this next flip, some pundits seem to operate under the assumption that they have to be right eventually (and they probably will if they keep at it, but not because of any great foresight).