olieplaatjes IEA en aandelen

Af en toe geeft de IEA een update van de vraagschattingen. Als die omhoog gaat is dat een flinke steun voor de olieprijzen, zoals de laatste keer

De olieaandelen ETF XLE is behoorlijk hersteld. Sommige technische indicatoren hebben nu wat hoogtevrees, dus een correctie zou goed kunnen.

Verder commentaar IEA

https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

geheel anders dan vorig jaar is de IEA nu de trend voor de vraag naar olie in de wereld aan het verhogen (plaatje uit rapport 15 april).

·         Oil futures prices eased in March, pressured by sharply higher supplies from Middle East OPEC producers and a relentless build in US crude stocks as refiners in Europe and Asia prepared for maintenance. At the time of writing, ICE Brent was trading at roughly $58.25/bbl - some 50% below last June's peak. NYMEX WTI was around $52.35/bbl.

·         The forecast of global oil demand for 2015 has been raised by 90 kb/d to 93.6 mb/d, a gain of 1.1 mb/d on the year. The notable acceleration on 2014's 0.7 mb/d growth follows cold temperatures in 1Q15 and a steadily improving global economic backdrop.

·         Global supply rose by an estimated 1 mb/d month-on-month in March, to 95.2 mb/d, as OPEC production recorded its highest monthly increase in nearly four years. Annual gains of a whopping 3.5 mb/d were split between OPEC and non-OPEC production.

·         OPEC crude oil output soared by 890 kb/d in March, to 31.02 mb/d, on sharply higher Saudi Arabian, Iraqi and Libyan supplies. The 'call on OPEC crude and stock change' was revised marginally higher for 2H15, to 30.35 mb/d, above the group's official production ceiling, but left unchanged for 2015 versus last month's Report, at 29.5 mb/d.

·         OECD industry stocks slipped by 1.7 mb in February, despite a massive 36.4 mb build in crude oil stocks. Preliminary data show OECD inventories rising counter-seasonally in March, by 29.2 mb, as US crude holdings extended recent builds and refined products defied seasonal trends.

·         Global refinery crude demand is expected to fall seasonally to 77.3 mb/d in 2Q15, from 78 mb/d in 1Q15. While Atlantic Basin refiners mostly completed turnarounds in 1Q15, Asian refinery maintenance is set to ramp up sharply in 2Q15, with up to 2.5 mb/d of distillation capacity offline at its peak in May.