voor deze aandelencorrectie geldt this time is different

The Current Stock Market Correction Is Unique From The Last Five Hair-Raisers (Dr. Ed's Blog)

From 2010 to 2012 the stock market has seen five significant, 'hair-raising' corrections — the worst seen during the summer of 2012 when the S&P 500 fell 19.4%. "All of these five corrections were triggered by macroeconomic events that threatened to precipitate a recession," writes Ed Yardeni in Dr. Ed's Blog. "When those threats dissipated, the bull market resumed. The anxiety attacks that caused the corrections were followed by relief rallies."

The current stock market correction, however, is unique, he writes, with the S&P 500 down 0.5% from its record high, while the Nasdaq is down 5.2% from its recent high. However, lots of stocks are down 10-20% since March. "I have characterized the recent selloff as an 'internal correction.' Scrambling to avoid giving back the fabulous gains from last year’s melt-up rally, institutional investors have been rebalancing their portfolios away from high-P/E to low-P/E stocks. They’ve moved some of their portfolios out of Growth into Value stocks. Stocks with predictable earnings are outperforming the more cyclical ones. Among the losers have been lots of 'innocent bystanders' that have been pummelled mostly because they are included in out-of-favour ETFs."

Er zit heel wat in die analyse.

De periode na maart 2009 lijkt erg op die na augustus 1982. Er kwam herstel uit de diepste recessie na de Tweede Wereldoorlog. De val van 1984 lijkt op die van 2012.

Die correcties na 2009 waren pijnlijk, je voelde je zo dom dat je ze niet had zien aankomen. Het huidige gebeuren is eigenlijk geen correctie te noemen, maar is pijnlijk omdat al je goede ideeën van de afgelopen een, twee jaar door de grond gaan. Geen afscheid genomen van internetaandelen, tesla, biotech, de huizenbouwers? Heel dom. Nog meer rentedaling in de europeriferie? U bent wel heel erg hebberig. Neem toch een keer winst. Fragile five net weggedaan eind 2013? U hebt u laten meeslepen door de huilverhalen. Na de krach in hun valuta’s moest je toch kopen en niet verkopen, het was toch immers geen 1998.

Op naar 1987?

[Het gaat nu langzamer. 2018]