India op 2 bij a dash of insight

Technisch is India ineens zeer hoog binnengekomen bij het goed werkende selectiemodel van a dash of insight (http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2009/12/etf-update-investing-in-india.html). Fundamenteel krijgt India ook de zegen.
(http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2009/12/09/read-this-before-you-buy-india.aspx)
India is het land met het meeste human capital. De regering is nu een plus. De gebrekkige infrastructuur houdt het land nog terug: industriële productie kan 10-12% hoger zijn als de nutsbedrijven betrouwbaar zijn. Dan pas is India echt concurrerend als industrienatie, gelijk met China. India is het land van entrepreneurs, veel meer dan China en Europa.

Van link Motley Fool over India:
India is people
Shah pointed out that human capital is one of India's most compelling global competitive advantages. The country is huge, young, and English-speaking. Yes, it needs to improve its educational system, but the foundation for decades of growth through entrepreneurship is here.

Shah said, if you factor out India's four most underdeveloped provinces, the country has matched China's growth over the past 15 years. And while he acknowledged that it's not realistic to pull the laggards out of any data set, he wanted to show us that even though India's development has been uneven, the country is just as capable as China of torrid growth.

What's more, India achieved this impressive growth despite its atrocious communication, energy, and transportation infrastructure. Yet Shah -- like almost everyone else we've met on this trip -- is optimistic that these issues will be solved and that once they are, India's true potential will be unlocked. For example, Shah thinks manufacturing costs in India could come down 10% to 12% with the establishment of a reliable power grid. This infrastructure would allow factories to run 'round the clock and not depend their own generators and fuel. That cost reduction could make India competitive with China and other manufacturing economies, opening up a sector for job growth and development.

Can it happen?
Something similar has already happened in the telecommunications sector. A decade ago, India's regulated fixed-line provider offered woefully poor service, and customers had to wait years to get a telephone. Now, the deregulated mobile sector provides some of the world's best service at some of the world's lowest prices. Efficient per-second billing allows even cash-strapped Indians to own phones.

The secret of this success was the introduction of competition to the marketplace and the establishment of partnerships between well-capitalized foreign companies, such as Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) and SingTel, with nascent domestic providers that had local knowledge.

It's that combination of foreign capital and local knowledge that Shah thinks can be replicated to drive growth for many years. He's hopeful that it will because foreign capital, despite recent volatility, continues to come to India and because the next generation of Indian entrepreneurs is increasingly staying in India to work rather than moving to the United States or Europe.

"Where will the next Intel and Microsoft come from?" Shah asked rhetorically. "It has to be East Asia." That's because the region is capital-rich and has to innovate to solve basic problems at low cost, he explained.

N.B. winnende sectoren volgens a dash of insight: telecom en farma naast op 1 semiconductors en verder staal. Landen: 1. India, 2. China, 3. Mexico.