Abenomics geen mislukking

.De laatste dagen wordt Abenomics afgedaan als een mislukking vanwege de zeer teleurstellende krimp van het BNP in het derde kwartaal door een voorraadaanpassing.

 



De groei van Japan is laag geweest, maar per hoofd van de bevolking helemaal niet zo slecht (plaatje Minack). Na de Aziëcrisis van 1998 was de groei per hoofd in Japan bijna hetzelfde als in de VS en beter dan in Europa. Ja, hadden we het in Europa maar zo goed gedaan als in het Japanscenario.

Japan kreeg het de laatste jaren steeds moeilijker en Abe doorbrak de neerwaartse psychologische spiraal. Japan zat in een vreselijke positie. Deflatie, overgewaardeerde munt, energieproductie in duigen (alle kerncentrales dicht) door tsunami, vergrijzing, krimp arbeidsmarkt
 In

http://uk.businessinsider.com/shinzo-abe-is-right-abenomics-has-not-failed-and-he-deserves-credit-2014-11 nam men het op voor Abenomics:

" Lucrezia Reichlin at the London School of Economics, called the slump. And they see a "dramatic improvement" on the way in November and December. The effects of the tax hike won't last forever, and the Bank of Japan jump-started its already large QE programme at the end of October. 

It's also a big mistake to think the hike in sales tax was an important part of Abe's overall plan. The tax hikes were planned under former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda and passed as a cross-party move. In Abe's first five quarters, before the tax rise came into effect, average quarterly growth was 3.26% annualized. That's strong, especially for Japan, where an ageing population makes the natural rate of growth pretty slow".

Andy Lees haalde Abe alsvolgt aan:

Speaking on television, Abe said “I am aware that critics say Abenomics is a failure and not working but I have not heard one concrete idea what to do instead. Are our economic policies mistaken or correct? Is there another option? This is the only way to end deflation and revive the economy”. He pledged that the sales tax hike, needed to fund swelling social security costs and curb Japan’s massive public debt, would be implemented without fail in April 2017. It is worth remembering that by 2017, without reform the population of working age will be 2.8% less than it is today and the savings rate will be about 2.2% lower, making the ability to raise the raise the tax at the time that much more difficult.