ISM valt mee

Ik was toch verbaasd over de stijging van de ISM, al was het aardig precies volgens het boekje van het modelletje gebaseerd op de initial claims, detailhandelsverkopen en output gap.

Nu zou er wat zwakte aankomen van vertraagde doorwerking stijging initial claims en in mindere mate ook de mindere groei van de detailhandelsverkopen.

Production was wel beneden 50 overigens en new orders/ inventories verslechterde.

Als de soft patch voorbij is, dan hoort de ISM overigens niet te dalen.
de toelichting van NAPM zelf:

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...

• "Cold weather is having a negative impact on our business (garment). Orders are down." (Apparel, Leather & Allied Products)
• "Continue to have trouble finding qualified CNC machinists. Desperately trying to hire CNC programmers." (Fabricated Metal Products)
• "Bad weather hampering logistics across the country." (Petroleum & Coal Products)
• "Higher than normal demand for this time of year." (Transportation Equipment)
• "Very strong month in terms of growth." (Computer & Electronic Products)
• "Many raw material disruptions due to weather and back-ups at the ports." (Chemical Products)
• "We are seeing competition heat-up this year." (Plastics & Rubber Products)
• "Slow January, but February orders are picking-up." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
• "Conservative optimism re-kindling. Steady as it goes." (Machinery)
• "Business continues to be stronger. Was at the KBIS/IBS show last week, and the feeling was much the same. Good last year and this year shows great promise." (Furniture & Related Products)