21 augustus 2011

De paniek van 2011 (2)

Na me twee weken onttrokken te hebben aan de paniek op de beurzen is het weer tijd om met een frisse blik tegen de paniek van 2011 aan te kijken.
De paniek is wat groter geworden dan ik dacht. In de ontwerpfase van de verliescyclus voor Europese staatsleningencrisis (zie post hierover)is de volatiliteit enorm en krijg je meestal aan het eind van de fase de bodem in de markt. In het zomerreces kun je niet verwachten dat men in de gunstige vijfde fase, de implementatiefase, terechtkomt zoals al eerder gesteld.
De noodzaak voor Sarkozy om een Europees uitgifteluik in het zomerreces er door te drukken is minder geworden doordat Frankrijk AAA mag blijven zonder vooruitzicht op snelle downgrade door S&P (de complottheorie stelt dat aan de mensen van S&P is duidelijk gemaakt dat een downgrade een soort ongelukje kan uitlokken net als bij de Rainbow Warrior in Nieuw Zeeland waarbij Frankrijk de GreenPeace opstandelingen hardhandig een lesje leerde dat je niet zo maar ongestraft maar met dodelijke gevolgen te veel tegen de belangen van Frankrijk in kunt gaan).

De paniek kun je goed zien aan de explosie van de volatiliteit zoals de VIX aangeeft en de enorme stijging van de goudprijs in combinatie met een voor de dekkingsgraad van vele pensioenfondsen herstelplan ruïnerende ineenzijging van de rente. Vooral ook de sinds juli ongelooflijke stijging van M1 en M2 in o.a. de VS is een teken van paniekerende mensen die zo veel mogelijk deposito's bij de banken aan het plaatsen zijn (daarmee wel hun grote fundingproblemen oplossend). Het Amerikaanse publiek is plotseling op behoorlijke schaal beleggingsfondsen in aandelen aan het verkopen, maar het aantal bulls is nog steeds erg hoog voor een echte paniek zoals die van 2011.

De FED beloofde zowaar de rente de komende twee jaar niet te verhogen en volgende week zal Bernanke op het congres van de centrale bankiers in Jackson Hole net als vorig jaar proberen de magische bezweringen uit te spreken om de aandelenmarkt weer op te pompen. Deze keer zal hij QE3 met nieuwe toverkracht moeten aanvullen, bijvoorbeeld door net als de Bank of Japan te beloven gewoon een beetje aandelen te gaan kopen, vooral die met een vrij zeker hoog dividendrendement.

Het economische nieuws was per saldo nogal tegenvallend, vooral de groei in Europa in het tweede kwartaal viel tegen en ook de Phillyfed geeft aan dat de ISM onder 48 komt. De huizenmarkt in de VS valt nog steeds tegen, al gaat nu de record lage hypotheekrente helpen, herfinanciering tegen deze rente leidt tot een onverwachte semi permanente meevaller voor veel gezinnen. De inflatie was te hoog in de VS, maar dat hield de daling van de impliciete inflatieverwachtingen natuurlijk niet tegen.

Men is bang voor stagflatie (maar dan ben je wel een sukkel als je obligaties koopt), grootscheepse verkoop van Chinezen van hun obligaties en vooral van een nieuwe bankencrisis in Europa (die ineens bijna weg is als er Europese staatsleningen worden uitgegeven). Het sombere verhaal van Morgan Stanley over de groei in de VS ging erin als koek.

De groeiverwachtingen in Europa en de VS zijn de afgelopen twee weken spectaculair gedaald (optimisme voor Duitsland en Frankrijk verdampte)en dit gaat de winstverwachtingen nu de komende weken ook flink raken (bij de huidige groeiverwachtingen hoort geen winststijging meer in 2012, bij een recessie zijn de winstschattingen voor 2012 20-40% te hoog).
Als deze groeiverwachtingen uitkomen kan elke republikein, zelfs Donald Duck de presidentsverkiezing winnen in 2012.

Is er nog hoop voor Obama? Hij zou nu grote infrastructuurinvesteringen door moeten drukken in plaats van extra bezuinigingen. Dat gaat niet lukken, maar als hij dit de inzet maakt van de verkiezingen, dan heeft hij een kans. De economische groei kan na de enorme bijstellingen van de groei vanwege de plotseling aanzwellende groei van de besparingen vrij snel weer herstellen. De consumptiekracht neemt toe door de fors dalende grondstoffenprijzen en de komende daling van de besparingen na de schok, die niet lang hoeft te duren. Bedrijven hoeven niet veel mensen te ontslaan, dat hebben ze al gedaan en ze hebben te voorzichtig mensen aangenomen. Ze hebben een overvloed aan cash en bij de huidige lage rente is er weinig reden het reeds veel te voorzichtige investeringstempo naar beneden te schroeven. De winstmarges zijn hoog en men weet dat je door moet investeren in recessies als je dat kunt (vooral als de concurrentie het niet kan/durft). De huizenmarkt kan niet veel omlaag en koop van een huis is aantrekkelijk bij de behoorlijke, versnellende huurstijgingen en lage hypotheekrente. Het moet dan wel snel duidelijk worden dat het bedrijfsleven maar weinig mensen hoeft te ontslaan. De American dream is niet helemaal een nachtmerrie geworden, men wil echt nog steeds in een auto rijden en de te lage autoverkopen van het tweede kwartaal kunnen moeilijk veel lager worden (de autoverkopen gaan flink stijgen, vooral als aankoop nog een of twee kwartalen wordt uitgesteld). D.w.z. verdere groeiterugval is wel mogelijk, maar kan moeilijk groot en langdurig worden zo lang de Tea Party het nog niet voor het zeggen heeft.

Is er nog hoop voor de beurs? Aandelen zijn goedkoop en het dividendrendement van kwaliteitsfondsen is veel hoger geworden dan de rente. Men kan vooruit gaan lopen op de komst van een Europees uitgiftesysteem voor staatsleningen. Men kan verrast worden door meevallende groeicijfers, nu de verwachtingen zijn afgekomen (maar dan moet de paniek wel minderen). De winstcijfers kunnen meevallen, omdat winstmarges hoog zijn en te voorzichtig is geïnvesteerd en de groei in de opkomende markten gewoon doorzet (misschien maar 5% groei in plaats van 6%).

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