30 juni 2010

De berengalerij

Bij IEX profs hebben ze een berengalerij aangehaald van 23 pessimisten. (http://www.businessinsider.com/23-doomsayers-who-say-were-heading-toward-depression-in-2011-2010-5#nouriel-roubini-1)
Samenvattend gaat hun verhaal alles bij elkaar ongeveer zo:

We komen in de komende kwartalen in een nieuwe great recessie terecht die de huidige depressie sinds 2007 bevestigt en overheden kunnen deze keer (m.u.v. de VS) niet extra stimuleren. Centrale banken, de ECB voorop, zullen failliet gaan, na aankoop van te veel overheidsschuld van landen die hun schulden naar 0% herstructureren.
Grote deflatoire krachten zullen enorme inflatie veroorzaken, geen deflatie en daarom is goud een koopje en 10 jaar staatsleningen op 2% al helemaal. Spanje is failliet, Griekse staatsleningen zijn waardeloos. De euro zal uit elkaar spatten. Er komt en devaluatiewedloop waarbij om de beurt valuta’s waardeloos worden en vervangen worden door nieuwe na enige tijd ook weer waardeloze valuta’s.
Geldgroei zal overal imploderen met alle hyperinflatoire gevolgen van dien om dit recht te zetten.
Amerika krijgt na Europa de volle laag, alleen wat erger.
China raakt diep in de put door de valutaverliezen en overinvesteringen in waardeloze exportindustrieën (waarom zou het westen nog iets kopen?).
Japanse overheidsschulden kunnen niet langer gefinancierd worden.
BP gaat failliet en trekt andere oliemaatschappijen mee naar beneden.
De olieprijs zal door afnemende olieproductie en subsidies in Emerging Markets flink stijgen, waardoor de koopkracht van de consument wordt uitgehold.
De aandelencultus zal verdwijnen: welke idioot heeft verzonnen dat risico gemiddeld beloond wordt? Aandelen zullen nooit meer opbrengen dan staatsleningen, ook al is de rente op die leningen 2% of lager (stelling die volmaakt bewezen is door Roberts van RBS).
Krugman is met zijn constatering dat we in de derde grote depressie zitten sinds de Industriële Revolutie veel en veel te optimistisch.
Angela Merkel heeft gelijk dat je moet bezuinigen tot je eindelijk niets meer hebt. Dat is klasse! Zadel onze kinderen niet op met schulden!
Obamanomics heeft gefaald! Roubini for president!

Enige denkbeelden:
"We are still in the middle of this crisis and there is more trouble ahead of us, even if there is a recovery. During the great depression the economy contracted between 1929 and 1933, there was the beginning of a recovery, but then a second recession from 1937 to 1939. If you don't address the issues, you risk having a double-dip recession and one which is at least as severe as the first one."

Mervyn King:
"Dealing with a banking crisis was difficult enough, but at least there were public-sector balance sheets on to which the problems could be moved. Once you move into sovereign debt, there is no answer; there's no backstop."

Angela Merkel:
"The current crisis facing the euro is the biggest test Europe has faced for decades, even since the Treaty of Rome was signed in 1957."

Paul Donavan (UBS):
"Now people are questioning if the euro will even exist in three years."

Michael Pento (Delta):
"The crisis in Greece is going to spread to Spain and it’s going to be very difficult to deal with. They are bailing out debt with more debt and it isn’t sustainable. It’s a wonderful scenario for gold."

"LEAP/E2020 believes that the global systemic crisis will experience a new tipping point from Spring 2010. Indeed, at that time, the public finances of the major Western countries are going to become unmanageable, as it will simultaneously become clear that new support measures for the economy are needed because of the failure of the various stimuli in 2009, and that the size of budget deficits

Telegraph Columnist Edmund Conway:
Whatever yardstick you care to choose – share-price moves, the rates at which banks lend to each other, measures of volatility – we are now in a similar position to 2008."

Peter Morici:
"The next financial tsunami is emerging and will ripple to America."

Bob Chapman of the International Forecaster op prisonerplanet:
"The green shoots of recovery have now turned into poison ivy. The abyss has again been filled with more debt and more fiat currency. In the process the Fed and now the ECB have lost all credibility

Telegraph Columnist Ambrose Evans-Pritchard:
"The M3 money supply in the United States is contracting at an accelerating rate that now matches the average decline seen from 1929 to 1933, despite near zero interest rates and the biggest fiscal blitz in history."

Tim Congdon:
The plunge in M3 has no precedent since the Great Depression. The dominant reason for this is that regulators across the world are pressing banks to raise capital asset ratios and to shrink their risk assets. This is why the US is not recovering properly."
[N.B. in de VS houdt men M3 de laatste jaren niet meer bij]

Iliana Jonas:
"The default rate for commercial mortgages held by banks in the first quarter hit its highest level since at least 1992 and is expected to surpass that by year-end and peak in 2011, according to a study by Real Capital Analytics."

Paul Krugman
It's not hard to see Japan-style deflation emerging if the economy stays weak."

Stan Humphries, Chief Economist for Zillow.com
"Anyone expecting a robust rebound in the housing market ... will be sorely disappointed."

Fox News
As the national debt clock ticked past the ignominious $13 trillion mark overnight, Congress pressed to pass a host of supplemental spending bills."

"The U.S. government’s Aaa bond rating will come under pressure in the future unless additional measures are taken to reduce projected record budget deficits, according to Moody’s Investors Service Inc."
[commentaar: misschien werd Moody's daarom op de watchlist gezet voor downgrade van hun kredietwaardigheid door S&P]

Peter Schiff
When creditors ultimately decide to curtail loans to America, U.S. interest rates will finally spike, and we will be confronted with even more difficult choices than those now facing Greece. Given the short maturity of our national debt, a jump in short-term rates would either result in default or massive austerity. If we choose neither, and opt to print money instead, the run-a-way inflation that will ensue will produce an even greater austerity than the one our leaders lacked the courage to impose. Those who believe rates will never rise as long as the Fed remains accommodative, or that inflation will not flare up as long as unemployment remains high, are just as foolish as those who assured us that the mortgage market was sound because national real estate prices could never fall."

The National League of Cities
"City budget shortfalls will become more severe over the next two years as tax collections catch up with economic conditions. These will inevitably result in new rounds of layoffs, service cuts, and canceled projects and contracts."

Dan Domenech, Executive Director of the American Association of School Administrators
"Faced with continued budgetary constraints, school leaders across the nation are forced to consider an unprecedented level of layoffs that would negatively impact economic recovery and deal a devastating blow to public education."

Mike Whitney
"Without another boost of stimulus, the economy will lapse back into recession sometime by the end of 2010."

Kevin Giddis, Managing Director of Fixed Income at Morgan Keegan
There is big money making big bets that at a minimum we we'll have a recession if not a depression that could last for years."

John P. Hussman
"In my estimation, there is still close to an 80% probability (Bayes' Rule) that a second market plunge and economic downturn will unfold during the coming year. This is not certainty, but the evidence that we've observed in the equity market, labor market, and credit markets to-date is simply much more consistent with the recent advance being a component of a more drawn-out and painful deleveraging cycle."
[in mijn bayesiaanse schatting is het eerder 20%, wat een kletskoek om Bayes hierbij te halen]

Richard Russell, the Famous Author of the Dow Theory Letters
"Do your friends a favor. Tell them to "batten down the hatches" because there's a HARD RAIN coming. Tell them to get out of debt and sell anything they can sell (and don't need) in order to get liquid. Tell them that Richard Russell says that by the end of this year they won't recognize the country. They'll retort, "How the dickens does Russell know -- who told him?" Tell them the stock market told him."

Tsja na zo veel slecht nieuws, wat kan er nu nog niet in de prijzen verdisconteerd zijn aan slecht nieuws?

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