-de onhoudbaarheid van de Griekse schuld
zeer lange looptijd, gefinancierd tegen een zo lage ente dat de lasten lager zijn dan die van Frankrijk of België in de komende jaren. Toch nog te zwaar.
en diverse mensen beginne te rekenen hoe lang een lening moet zijn om een 'haircut' te kunnen zijn: 40-50 jaar leidt tot minstens 40% (ik reken veel grotere discounts uit; als ze in drachmen gaan financieren, zullen ze vele malen hogere rentes moeten gaan betalen).
-volgens een poll van Atlantico http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/donald-trump-leads-scott-walker-jeb-bush-in-fox-national-poll-120267.html leidt Trump bij de republikeinen met 18% voor Walker (die denk ik gaat winnen) 15%, Bush 14% en Rubio/Paul 8%.
hierbij hoort ook Obama bashen http://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-next-revolution-1436918113
Manhattan Institute Senior Fellow James
Piereson on his new book, “Shattered Consensus,” and the death of the welfare
state.
En dat net nu Obama zo succesvol is geworden, de enige president die van zijn tweede ambtstermijn meer maakt dan van zijn eerste
maar het boek heeft enige interessante denkbeelden
De bespreking in de Wall Street Journal: Mr. Piereson, a hero of philanthropy who faithfully
spent the Olin Foundation out of business after supporting the work of think
tanks, small magazines and groundbreaking scholars like Allan Bloom and Charles
Murray, views the Obama presidency as the beginning of the collapse of an
80-year consensus, forged in the post-World War II years. That consensus “assigned
the national government responsibility for maintaining full employment and for
policing the world in the interests of democracy, trade, and national
security.” Such a consensus, which “is required in order for a polity to meet
its major challenges,” Mr. Piereson argues, “. . . no longer exists in the
United States. That being so, the problems will mount to a point where either
they will be addressed through a ‘fourth revolution’ or the polity will begin
to disintegrate for lack of fundamental agreement.”
How, for example, will the contemporary left resolve
the original progressive contradiction, which persists today: Affecting to be
tribunes of “the people” and advocates for democracy, in practice so-called
progressives demonstrate a dismissive impatience with democracy in favor of
rule by the diktats of our benevolent betters, namely them.
At some point, what Democrat Erskine
Bowles has aptly labeled
“the most predictable crisis in American history” will be upon us, as the
federal government defaults by one means or another on its unpayable promises.
A revolt of the betrayed elderly, or of the plundered young, could be the
catalyst for Mr. Piereson’s revolution. Perhaps even sooner, one state rendered
destitute by reckless government spending and public pensions will attempt to
dump its hopeless debt problem on the rest of the union. Which of these
scenarios is most likely? Which most dangerous? Could the fourth revolution
manifest itself in a separatist movement by states where majorities feel
culturally estranged and disinclined to pick up the tab for the extravagance of
less responsible states? Could the growing number of citizens professing
economic conservatism coupled with libertarian social views be the front edge
of a new consensus? No doubt this insightful author can help the rest of us
think through these possibilities, but it appears that we will have to await
his next book.
Hal Varian had nog een verhaal in de Wall Street Journal dat de productiviteitsgroei onderschat wordt, omdat een heleboel gratis is en daarom niet geteld wordt
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