Terwijl enkele mensen al scenario's klaar hadden staan hoe ze moesten gaan kopen als de wereld verging (taper van QE aankondiging), ging daardoor de beurs omhoog in plaats van omlaag. Een paar seconden schrik en dan hosanna.
Tja. de taper is maar klein en met zo veel mitsen en maren omgeven dat er ngog hel wat QE mogelijk is en de FED-rente in geen velden of wegen verhoogd gaat worden, al helemaal niet als de inflatie onder de 2% is en de werkloosheid behoorlijk lange tijd onder de 6,5% gezakt is.
Daar stond het dan (vette woorden zoals aangegeven door calculated Risk).
: "In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions, the Committee decided to modestly reduce the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in January, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $35 billion per month rather than $40 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $40 billion per month rather than $45 billion per month."
And on forward guidance: "The Committee now anticipates, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6-1/2 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal."
Market Watch had al als commentaar over hoe erg QE was volgens de experts:
MarketWatch.com – Doomsday poll: still a 98% risk of 2014 stock crash
Commentary: Psychological realities as new year dawns end irrational exuberance
Yes, “Doomsday poll: 98% risk of 2014 stock crash” was my midyear headline. And yes, it still fits. Why? Because in the new year, after the irrational exuberance of the “Christmas rally” passes, reality will set in. Remember the dark warnings from last January through the fall? Fed even saw an “unsustainable bubble” … Bill Gross: “Credit Supernova” … Jeffrey Gundlach: “Kaboom Ahead” … Charlie Ellis: “Don’t own bonds” … Gary Shilling: “Shocker” … Nouriel Roubini: “Prepare for perfect storm” … Peter Schiff “doubling down” on his “doomsday” prediction … InvestmentNews’s warning to 90,000 advisers: “Tick, tick … boom!” Then a sudden, dramatic psychological twist: The investors’ collective brain tired of the negativity in mid-October after the last bearish headline: “America’s economic guillotine dead ahead.” A week later the reversal: “2014 ‘Year of the Boom’ bet on the bulls,” quoting Bank of America’s chief strategist: “Bulls roaring. Hot race to the New Year. Then beyond into a booming, bullish 2014 rally … Great Gatsby’s spirit is back in America. Top billing. Let the good times roll. Come join the party.” By November irrational exuberance was accelerating, in full holiday mode: Headline, “Shiller’s hot P/Es powering a ‘Roaring Bull’ till 2017,” dubbed the 2014 “Katy Perry market.” A week later, another headline added: “10 reasons to be a bull in 2014.”