31 maart 2012

Barclays: stagflatie in Amerika dreigt

Van de week kwam Julian Callow van Barclays langs. Voor de korte termijn was hij best wel opgewekt, de groei in de VS kon nog best wel wat meevallen. Maar voor de inflatie, daar was hij pessimistisch over. Misschien is dat omdat de inflatie in Engeland zo hardnekkig hoog bleef ondanks de veronderstelde lage bezettingsgraad.

In Amerika zie je een voortdurend dalende participatiegraad, een steeds kleiner deel van de bevolking werkt. Het grootste deel wordt sinds kort veroorzaakt door demografische redenen (de grote klap kwam door de kredietcrisis).
Callow denkt dat de natuurlijke werkloosheid (NAIRU) veel hoger ligt dan de FED aangeeft: op 7% en niet de 5,5-6,25% waarop de FED hoopt.

Als Callow gelijk heeft, krijg je hoge inflatie bij hoge werkloosheid, al bij 7% werkloosheid: stagflatie.
Er is heel wat te zeggen voor die stelling. De demografie werkt tegen (maar door te lage pensioenbesparingen moet participatiegraad ouderen toenemen, waardoor een en ander op korte termijn kan meevallen) en de huren zullen steeds meer gaan stijgen.

De pricing power van het bedrijfsleven is aan het verbeteren en China exporteert niet langer deflatie (er zijn nu andere lagelonenlanden die deflatie exporteren).
De demografie zorgt voor een steeds lagere participatiegraad in de komende jaren en dat werkt inflatoir: hogere looneisen en hogere zorgkosten/medische kosten d.w.z. inflatie vanuit de overheid.

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