19 oktober 2010
foreclosuregate lijkt mee te vallen
Goldman Sachs: In assessing the new issues related to foreclosures, we see two issues:
(1) The status of certain foreclosures in a number of states is being questioned on the certification of foreclosure documentation. This issue looks short-term in nature, and limited in impact, as documents are reprocessed, albeit at some expense to banks and mortgage serving firms.
Assuming 25% decline in foreclosure sales over the course of one quarter in the states impacted by this issue would yield an incremental 2.7% decline in housing turnover
(2) Several title insurance companies have decided to withdraw from offering policies on foreclosed properties due to concerns around documentation and legal title. While our financials team sees this problem as technical in nature, and our ECS team thinks it is smaller in scope than the issue cited above, it could reduce foreclosure sales until legal
precedents are established.
Damage on issue looks overdone
The states most deeply involved in the issue of documentation surrounding foreclosures generate roughly 50% of foreclosures and 33% of foreclosure sales, according to Goldman Sachs ECS research (Florida represents a disproportionate segment of foreclosures, but a smaller piece of foreclosure sales). Note that these figures do not relate to the issue of title, which is smaller in scope but could last for longer.
Foreclosures, in turn, represent an estimated 44% of overall home sales (46% of existing home sales, within a recent range of 37%-61%). A one percentage point decline in foreclosure sales impacts housing turnover by ~0.5%.
A 10% decline in foreclosure sales in impacted states would impact overall foreclosure sales by 3.3% and overall housing turnover by ~1.5%.
Our regression analysis suggests that foreclosure sales impact home improvement sales half as much as a traditional home sale, such that adjusted home sales for the purpose of driving home improvement sales would be down ~1.8%.
Every percentage point decline in adjusted housing turnover drives same-store sales lower by roughly 39 bps for HD and 47 bps for LOW, based on our regression analysis.
We have no firm estimate of the proportion of foreclosures that are in question. Assuming a 25% decline in foreclosure sales in impacted states would drive foreclosure adjusted turns lower by 4.6%.
etc. ik ben even te lui het netjes in het Nederlands te vertalen.