Nederland kan wellicht € 1 miljard aan landbouwexport naar Rusland op de buik schrijven, zo'n 0,2% van ons BNP. Genoeg om te gaan twijfelen of we moeten doorgaan met sancties. Principes zijn niet veel waard.
Het wachten is op het dichtdraaien van de gaskraan tenzij men de dubbele prijs of iets dergelijks betaalt, ook al mag dat niet volgens de verdragen.
Dat komt pas na de humanitaire actie van Rusland in de Oekraïne die volgens de Russen http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-06/russian-defense-minister-tells-troops-be-state-constant-battle-readiness nu bijna onvermijdelijk is geworden. Zelfs in het Westen begint men nu over de oorlogszuchtige boeven in Kiev te praten http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise-sorge-ueber-russlands-truppen-an-der-grenze-a-984774.html. Rutte trekt de reddingswerkers van MH17 terug.
Wall Street gelooft overigens geen snars van dit soort oorlogszuchtige praat. De koersen gaven geen krimp op het gedoe rond Time Warner, veel belangrijker voor de koersvorming op het ogenblik en ook de zorgen over snode plannen van de FED is koersmatig belangrijker volgens de pundits dan het verbod van de invoer van appels en peren door Rusland. Invasie van Rusland is slechts plan B http://www.businessinsider.com/bremmer-invading-eastern-ukraine-is-clearly-putins-plan-b-2014-8
After Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine on July 17, a catastrophe almost certainly the work of Russian-backed rebels, the United States and the EU implemented new, wider-reaching sanctions. Russian President Vladimir Putin responded by redoubling his Ukraine policy. Rather than distancing itself from the militia groups, Moscow has stepped up its support, transferring arms, providing diplomatic cover, and even ordering Russian forces to fire on Ukrainian military targets across the border. Given the opportunity to abandon an increasingly costly policy, Putin has chosen to escalate.
BeantwoordenVerwijderenIn so doing, he is steering his country toward a period of prolonged isolation and economic difficulty. U.S. President Barack Obama suggested last week that Putin is behaving irrationally. "Objectively speaking, President Putin should want to resolve this diplomatically, to get these sanctions lifted," Obama said. There is a limit to what the United States can achieve, he added, when Putin and those around him are “ignoring what should be their long-term interests.”
But those interests look very different from Moscow than they do from Washington. Putin and his close advisers may be cynical, but they are sincere in their cynicism. They see the West, and the United States in particular, as engaged in an unceasing effort to weaken and fracture Russia. For them, Ukraine represents a redline. Putin’s suspicions of Western motives, dissatisfaction with the post–Cold War global order, and fears of a pro-Western Ukraine are parts of the same potent cocktail of grievance and paranoia. The best, if not the only, prophylactic is what Putin understands as “sovereignty.” It is a concept that Putin warned his Security Council is “being washed out” by “ultimatums and sanctions.” It is also, as Putin sees it, what Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev let slip out from under him, leading to the disintegration of state power -- and thus precisely what Putin is intent on preserving.
http://goo.gl/01qtz2 Putin's wager, foreign affairs
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